One thing is clear. People are not afraid of buying in Austin right now (unless you’re buying a house that is).

More on that later…

But Commercial Real Estate? Activity is heating up and there are no signs of slowing down.

Here’s 3 stories we are tracking this week:

Craig Cavileer saw the "for sale" sign on a Sunday. Called that day. Made an offer.

Now that’s old school real estate!

The Deal: Delightful Development LLC (Cavileer's new firm) just acquired the historic Williamson County Jail plus 2 acres at 300 S Main Street in Georgetown. Approved by Commissioners Court on February 10, 2026. His Plan: Adaptive reuse into hotel, restaurant, and mixed-use.

Little bit of this, little bit of that.

But who is Craig Cavileer anyway? This is the man responsible for our friends up in Fort Worth’s famous “Stockyards”. You know… the place where they just wear cowboy boots—eat, drink, yeehaw? Yeah, well he’s done with that now.

This is his first major move since going independent.

Why Georgetown? Georgetown just crossed 100,000 people for the first time and it’s not breaking news the significant growth it’s received. It’s just no longer that small town—grab a glass of wine—visit your grandpappy—kind of place anymore! It’s becoming the next destination hub.

But not just that, tons of job growth too.

The Job Growth: Recent corporate announcements include Baer Manufacturing (HQ), Pegatron Corp (facility), Compal Electronics (facility), and Texas Municipal League (HQ relocation). Georgetown is attracting companies, not just Austin overflow.

What He’s Thinking: Cavileer's Fort Worth Stockyards model was simple:

Same thesis, smaller scale for Georgetown.

But why not choose Austin for a project like this? Let’s compare.

Austin:

Georgetown:

Or maybe it’s because it’s the only place left North of Austin where people still wear cowboy boots... C’mon Y’all!

What's Next: Cavileer told commissioners they're "not 100% sure" what the final program will be, but expect hotel, restaurant, and potentially event space that leverages the building's historic character. Adaptive reuse moves slower than ground-up, but the product commands premium rents.

Yes. We had our intern sort through permit data so you didn’t have to…

What’s in the works: The Morgan Group pulled building permits in January 2026 for a 387-unit mixed-use development at 7817 W SH 71 in West Oak Hill. This is an 8-story luxury apartment project on 13.6 acres, near the “Y” intersection where US 290 and SH 71 split.

Why This Is Surprising:

The Data:

Who’s Behind It: The Morgan Group — Houston-based, family-owned (3rd generation), vertically integrated. They develop, build, and manage under the "Pearl" brand.

Morgan doesn't do cheap. Pearl brand = Class A luxury targeting premium renters.

The Hurdles:

Oh yeah… this is why no one wants to build in Austin. It’s too damn difficult!

Permit notes "firewalls 1A-1F" in Building 1, suggesting fire-separated construction designed for the topography. The vertical design approach likely concentrates the footprint and preserves open space.

Timing it with Oak Hill Parkway aka The Infamous “Y Intersection” (mid-2026 completion):

Look—for my North Austinites, you may not even know what the “Y intersection” is!

For my South Austinites—it’s a swear word at the dinner table.

For those that don’t know, it’s a major highway intersection overhaul next to this new development. Here’s the details:

When that highway opens (est. later this year), you get nonstop access from Oak Hill to downtown — no traffic lights on 290. This should significantly reduce commute times from the corridor and make all property values nearby increase.

Permits just issued. Even on an aggressive construction schedule, first units likely won't deliver until 2027 at the earliest — well after the road is done and the construction chaos clears.

What This Developer Is Betting On:
Okay we all know Austin's multifamily market is oversupplied still:

But there's a supply cliff coming. CoStar estimates only ~4,600 units delivering in 2026 — down 74% from 2025. New starts have cratered (higher financing costs + elevated vacancy).

Morgan is timing this right when the market is going to recover:

So How Will This Shape Out? By delivery, the market will have absorbed through the current glut, the highway will be operational, and Morgan will be competing in a supply-constrained submarket where regulatory barriers discourage new entrants.

These guys know what they’re doing. I’m thinking they come out on top of their 5+ year project.

Redfin's February 2026 report shows Austin homes now spend 106 days on market — slowest among major US cities. This is up from 13 days in June 2014 and 17 days in April 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Why it matters: From 20 days at the 2021 pandemic peak to 106 days now is a 5x increase. This is substantial, Sellers and Buyers are miles apart right now.

Damn—Realtors how we feeling?

The Numbers:

Other Texas cities in bottom 10:

What The HECK Happened:

It was California! Just kidding… well sort of. I’ll explain:

2020-2021: The Boom
Tech workers relocated from places like SF/NYC. They could work remote now, why not live somewhere cheaper with no income tax?

All-cash offers with waived inspections became normal. Home prices surged. Median climbed from ~$400K to peak of $550K in May 2022. Homes sold in 20 days.

2022-Early 2023: The Overshoot
Builders responded with massive construction boom across suburbs — Pflugerville, Kyle, Buda, Leander, Georgetown. Mortgage rates hit 7%+. Median price peaked at $550K in May 2022.

2023-2026: The Correction
Tech layoffs and return-to-office mandates hit. People realized Texas is too frickin’ hot.

Supply flooded the market from pandemic-era construction boom. Current data shows:

Simply Put: Austin had crazy demand —> Austin built to meet demand —> Demand left Austin —> Austin has too much real estate (for now)

Supply > Demand

Oh, and a ton of people own houses that are worth 20% less than when they bought them 2 years ago. So they can’t sell.

What 106 Days Means:

Days on market is a leading indicator of market conditions:

At 106 days, Austin is in "sellers getting desperate" territory. Expect more price cuts, more concessions, and more contingencies accepted.

Additional Market Context:

But It's Not a Crash, It’s a Correction:

Current median of $435K-$500K is still up 25-30% from pre-pandemic levels. This is a correction from unsustainable highs, not a collapse.

Redfin: "Unsustainable price growth in recent years along with a homebuilding boom have left Austin with more sellers than buyers."

Who This Helps vs. Hurts:

Hurt:

Helped:

The Contrarian Take:

The pandemic boom was unsustainable. When prices rise 30-40% while wages grow 3-5%, you create an affordability crisis that eventually corrects.

106 days on market means buyers can actually get inspections, sellers can't demand all-cash with no contingencies, and prices reflect actual market value instead of FOMO. That's a healthier market long-term — even if it hurts those who bought at the peak.

2026-2027 Outlook:

Mortgage rates currently around 6-6.5%. Most market observers expect continued price stabilization through 2026, with the possibility of modest growth if rates decline. But the days of 20-day sales and bidding wars? Those are gone for the foreseeable future.

My Take: Honestly, I do commercial real estate only, so I want to hear from my Realtors that subscribe.

Don’t be shy…

What are you seeing? Reply to this email and I’ll feature it next week.